61 million overnight guests in 2035
By 2035, the Netherlands is expected to welcome 61 million overnight guests, 12 million more than in 2023. Domestic overnight tourism will grow by 13% to 33 million guests, a stronger increase than previously anticipated. International overnight tourism will rise by 39% to 28 million guests, though growth from long-established markets will slow. Meanwhile, Spain shows significant growth, and arrivals from Asia continue to rise.
Domestic tourism continues to grow
Domestic overnight tourism is expected to grow by 13%, rising from 29 million guests in 2023 to 33 million in 2035. This growth highlights the ongoing appeal of domestic holidays. Factors driving this trend include the improved perception of local holidays since the COVID-19 pandemic and a preference for destinations closer to home. Additionally, extreme weather abroad influences more Dutch travellers to choose holidays within the Netherlands.
Diverse trends per source market
The number of international overnight guests in the Netherlands is expected to increase by 39% to 28 million by 2035. Growth from established markets such as Germany will be slower than earlier forecasts predicted. However, emerging markets such as Spain and Italy show strong growth, with Spanish arrivals potentially doubling. Asian markets are expected to more than double their guest numbers compared to 2023, with China being a key source country.
Provincial insights now available
For the first time, Forecast 2035 provides a detailed breakdown of expected tourism growth at the provincial level. These projections illustrate how domestic and international overnight guests will be distributed across the Netherlands through 2035. As tourism policies are often shaped at provincial, municipal, and destination marketing levels, these insights offer valuable tools for addressing the anticipated growth in regional tourism.
Want to know more?
Read Forecast 2035 for comprehensive national and provincial tourism forecasts.